Polymarket, the predictions market on Polygon, is drawing world consideration. Not solely is it among the many most lively dapps with out their token, however additionally it is intently being monitored by pollsters monitoring the continued presidential marketing campaign in the US.
Within the hotly contested marketing campaign, the present vp, Kamala Harris, is battling with Donald Trump. The previous president misplaced to Joe Biden in 2020 however now needs to take over.
Is Polymarket Deceptive Punters?
Taking a look at Polymarket, Trump has prolonged his lead over the previous few days. Punters place the likelihood of Donald Trump successful at 61% versus 39% for Harris.
Apparently, the Presidential Election Winner 2024 market has an total quantity of over $2 billion. As huge as this will likely seem, one analyst thinks Polymarket is deceptive folks and doesn’t wish to reveal the true open curiosity.
Open curiosity is the overall variety of excellent contracts in Polymarket’s quite a few markets. This metric is used as a gauge to measure liquidity and curiosity.
By the analyst’s estimation, its open curiosity stands at round $200 million, rising from round $100 million up to now 30 days. Biking over to DeFiLlama, the portal has a complete worth locked (TVL) of simply $211 million—and that is what the dapps handle, together with all different lively markets.
This determine is way lower than the $2 billion in quantity the Presidential Election Winner 2024 posts as of October 18. At over $211 million, the Polymarket TVL is at close to all-time highs, rising from lower than $50 million in April. Regardless of this fast progress, the prediction market’s liquidity is just not as deep as anticipated.
Transparency Questions Emerge
The analyst who identified this discrepancy is blasting Polymarket builders for fronting quantity somewhat than open curiosity, saying it’s unethical. This spotlight factors to a doable low emphasis on transparency that will, in the long run, make it troublesome for customers to handle dangers when putting bets on Polymarket precisely.
People will go to the polls on November 4 and select their subsequent president now that Joe Biden is stepping down. Afterward, the most important Polymarket market operating on Polygon will shut down, and rewards will probably be distributed relying on who wins.
Up to now, a punter, “markitzero” backing Harris to win has over 4.5million shares and is in crimson. In the meantime, a Trump supporter, “Fredi9999” controls over 20.2 market shares and is at the moment within the cash.
Function picture from Flickr, chart from TradingView
