Market Outlook #250 (18th December 2023)
Hey, and welcome to the 250th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s publish, I will likely be overlaying Bitcoin, Ethereum, Casper Community, TriasLab, Morpheus Community and Cellframe. I may also be offering a year-end replace to Altcoin Market Cap.
That is the final Outlook for 2023. Have an excellent Christmas and a Blissful New Yr and I’ll see you in 2024.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth: $40,971
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at BTC/USD, from the weekly timeframe we will see that value spent final week contained in the vary of the earlier week, printing an inside week. Given this formation, the very first thing to contemplate is the potential for inside week failure, which might kind if we take out both final week’s low or its excessive after which shut again inside that weekly vary. Provided that we offered off from final week’s open into the shut again under $42k, and thus our proximity to the weekly vary low (and the broader market outlook), I lean in the direction of the chance of us taking out the weekly low at $40.3k earlier than closing again above it. In that state of affairs, we might count on final week’s excessive to get taken out out and value to possible proceed to squeeze past $45k, with $48.2k as main resistance past that. If, nonetheless, value closes the week under $40.3k, this state of affairs is invalidated and I might count on a deeper pullback from there in the direction of $38k as untested prior resistance.
Dropping into the every day, we will see that every day construction is now bearish, given the break and shut under the $43k swing-low and subsequent lower-high; nonetheless, that wasn’t a lot of a swing level, so while that is technically bearish construction I’m not notably satisfied by it as of but. If we had been to now shut the every day by means of $40k, that appears to be like far more convincing for short-term bearishness, with first targets of a trendline retest and the $38k prior resistance, with $33k as the most important stage under that if we’re to take out all of these untapped lows alongside the trendline earlier than bottoming out. Nevertheless, if we will proceed to carry right here above $40k (or deviate this low and shut again above it), I might search for a push again above $43k earlier than favouring additional upside; between these ranges I don’t have a lot of a bias. Shut again above $43k and I do assume we proceed to push larger into $48k…
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth: $2132 (0.05203 BTC)
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at ETH/USD on the weekly timeframe, we will see that value retraced the entire features of the prior weekly enlargement final week, promoting off from the open again into reclaimed assist at $2172. Worth depraved under the prior weekly low into $2137, which held as assist, with the pair closing again above $2172. Actually, that is very a lot giving blended indicators: we have now erasure of the earlier week’s features following enlargement past yearly highs, however we have now a sweep of the weekly low into main assist too. Mainly, chop continues. What I’m taking a look at right here is the place we will proceed to carry above $2172 this week; shut above it after sweeping final week’s low and I believe we have now the makings of a backside earlier than one other run at $2425. If, nonetheless, we shut the week under $2137, I believe we’re more likely to see $1850 taken out earlier than a backside is discovered. Trying on the every day, we will see how every day construction appears to be like set to show bearish right here if we do break and shut under $2137, and if that’s confirmed we will count on $2036 to be examined later this week, however with far more assist down round $1850. Nevertheless, as talked about earlier, sweep this space of prior resistance after which climb again above $2172 later this week and I believe shorts get trapped and we squeeze again in the direction of yearly highs.
Turning to ETH/BTC, we will see that value continues to cut round between assist at 0.051 and resistance round 0.055. There’s little else to be added right here given the narrative has been the identical inside this vary for weeks now. After we break and shut both facet of the vary, I wouldn’t be fast to fade it.
Casper Community:
CSPR/USD
Day by day:
CSPR/BTC
Day by day:
Worth: $0.038 (92 satoshis)
Ideas: Provided that each pairs look nearly similar right here for CSPR, let’s concentrate on the Greenback pair.
Taking a look at CSPR/USD, we will see that it has been range-bound for 585 days at this level, with a lot of that being spent above $0.025 and under $0.055, apart from a quick fakeout past that vary resistance earlier this yr. We’ve got bullish construction right here on the every day however have offered off from prior assist up close to the top quality, with value now set to retest the 200dMA at $0.037 as assist. So long as we now maintain above reclaimed assist at $0.035 and the 200dMA, forming a higher-low, I might count on to see one other push on the vary resistance from right here up close to $0.055. If this can be a mission you have an interest in (reader request, FYI), I might take into account this nearly as good an entry as any provided that your invalidation right here might be as tight at $0.031; closing under that might invalidate all of this latest construction and we’d possible return in the direction of the underside of the vary from there. Trying forward, the disbelief section is clear – shut above $0.073 and I believe this begins its bull cycle, with $0.22 as main resistance past that.
TriasLab:
TRIAS/USD
Day by day:
TRIAS/BTC
Day by day:
Worth: $5.57 (13,579 satoshis)
Ideas: Once more, given how related these pairs look right here, let’s concentrate on the Greenback pair, because the construction can be just a little cleaner.
Taking a look at TRIAS/USD, we will see that value was in an extended interval of enlargement off the underside earlier than spending a lot of 2023 in consolidation under $4.15, faking out above that stage as soon as. This lengthy consolidation vary led to cost winding tighter with the 360dMA performing as assist and value then reclaiming the 200dMA as assist in October. Since, the pair has rallied in the direction of $4.15, consolidated between the 200dMA and that stage and most just lately damaged out sharply past that resistance, breaking recent yearly highs by means of $5. Given this market construction, I might completely not be fading this, as an alternative contemplating this possible the start of the subsequent main leg larger for TRIAS. If we will now maintain above $4.15, I might count on $6.40 to offer method and value to make its method in the direction of trendline resistance and reclaimed resistance up close to $12 earlier than the subsequent native prime types.
Morpheus Community:
MNW/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
MNW/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth: $1.08 (2659 satoshis)
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at MNW/USD on the weekly, we will see that value continues to be capped by trendline resistance from the all-time highs, having now rejected under the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market at prior assist ~$1.46. We’re presently discovering assist above $0.94, as has been the case since late final yr, however to be sincere this isn’t a very engaging long-term chart at current. We’ve got value discovering assist above the 200wMA in Nov final yr, then rallying to recent yearly highs into $2.45, confirming a weekly uptrend, however then rejecting, erasing the features again into the 200wMA after which rallying far more weakly off that very same assist into the trendline. If that $0.94 assist goes, this pair returns to bearish construction on the weekly, in order that’s presently your most necessary stage. Till it will get a weekly shut by means of that trendline and again above $1.50, I wouldn’t have an interest on this to be sincere – a lot better alternatives out there.
Taking a look at MNW/BTC, we will see that the pair may be very a lot nonetheless in a bear cycle at current, with recent lows on the latest break and shut under 3264 satoshis. Worth is now sat in no man’s land, with main assist under close to 1400 satoshis, and resistance overhead at that 3264 stage. There’s additionally no signal simply but of development exhaustion on the weekly timeframe. I really feel like given how just lately this rallied into all-time highs (Nov 2022), it will likely be some time but earlier than this one absolutely bottoms out; while most of its value capitulation seems to have occurred, we might have to see a interval of flat consolidation earlier than one other cycle can start for MNW.
Cellframe:
CELL/USD
Day by day:
CELL/BTC
Day by day:
Worth: $0.19 (475 satoshis)
Ideas: Once more, very like a few different tokens on this publish, CELL’s pairs look very related right here and I’m specializing in the Greenback pair, as that can be what I’m basing my long-term place on.
So, taking a look at CELL/USD, we will see that value has retraced following the push above $0.24 into $0.29, returning to reclaimed assist above $0.185 and the 200dMA. We stay capped by the long-term trendline resistance, however following the multi-year downtrend we have now been consolidating above all-time lows and under $0.37 since mid-2022. I’m very a lot nonetheless in my spot place right here and if I used to be not absolutely allotted I might be shopping for some inside this vary. Invalidation can be recent all-time lows, the place I might lower and anticipate a reclaim or a brand new vary formation. However given the broader market circumstances I believe we usually tend to proceed chopping round right here after which begin reversing sharply when ETH begins outperforming. Above $0.37 the primary bull cycle begins…
Altcoin Market Cap:
ALT/USD
Weekly:
ALT/BTC
Weekly:
Market Cap: $441.2bn
Ideas: Starting with ALT/USD, we will see that the altcoin market has emerged lastly after over 500 days of being range-bound, just lately rallying again by means of the 200wMA, consolidating above it as assist after which pushing by means of multi-year resistance at $413bn. We’ve got pushed into the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market right here at $480bn and rejected, now consolidating inside the prior weekly vary. I might count on to see additional consolidation right here after the multi-week rally, however there may be nothing bearish about this on the upper timeframes. So long as we will now maintain above that $400bn space, I might count on the subsequent squeeze to open up a much wider vary, the place issues will get very attention-grabbing: above $480bn, there isn’t a resistance for alts again into the 38.2% fib and prior assist close to $590bn – over 25% larger from right here. That’s the place I might count on extra resistance to be discovered for alts and maybe a broader market correction. Disbelief is turning into hope.
Taking a look at ALT/BTC, we will see that regardless of some features in Greenback values of alts – and big features on-chain in non-ETH ecosystems – we have now largely been trending decrease towards BTC for over a yr. Most just lately, alts depraved under assist at 10.5mn into 9.6mn and bounced, with development exhaustion now showing on this timeframe. We additionally noticed the market shut above trendline resistance, marginally – that is all indicative of a interval of altcoin outperformance being imminent, which is confluent with the Greenback valuation of the altcoin market. If we will reclaim 11.4mn as assist right here, I believe that would be the catalyst for alts outperforming BTC into the 200wMA and prior multi-year vary assist up close to 13.3mn BTC.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook – and the ultimate considered one of 2023!
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be at liberty to depart any feedback or questions under, or electronic mail me straight at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
