In an interview with CNBC’s Road Indicators on February 27, Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Analysis at Customary Chartered, provided insights on Bitcoin’s latest value decline and laid out a daring forecast for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. Regardless of near-term volatility, Kendrick expects Bitcoin to succeed in $200,000 this 12 months and as excessive as $500,000 earlier than the top of President Trump’s time period.
Bitcoin Crash? No Drawback!
Kendrick opened the dialogue by noting the affect of political developments on investor sentiment: “So I feel the Trump Administration will probably be constructive medium time period. So we got here into January 20, hoping for quite a bit and you can argue there was already various positivity priced in.”
He highlighted the quick post-inauguration shift in regulatory stance—particularly, the removing of SAB 121, which he described as having “been hampering monetary establishments.” Kendrick additionally addressed the dearth of a extensively anticipated strategic Bitcoin reserve, changed as a substitute by a “stockpile” method. In response to Kendrick: “The stockpile for me is okay as a result of it legitimizes different sovereigns […] each inside the US [and outside]. Numerous US states are contemplating holding Bitcoin on their steadiness sheet.”
Nonetheless, markets have been rattled by contemporary uncertainties. Kendrick pointed to ongoing commerce warfare and geopolitical flashpoints: “Initiatives within the final couple of weeks have been very complicated for threat property […] tariffs on and off. Canada, Mexico, EU […] clearly some potential positives coming round Ukraine and or the Center East however nothing strong actually on any of these and threat property don’t like uncertainty.”
Inside the crypto sphere particularly, he cited the Bybit hack, hassle with the Solana meme coin scams, and a typically “complicated” setting as contributors to the pullback. Kendrick underscored the cascading impact on Bitcoin.
When requested whether or not Bitcoin stays a real diversifier amid its correlation with equities, Kendrick maintained a nuanced view: “Actually once we see massive strikes like we’ve seen in the previous couple of weeks […] on the destructive path threat property all commerce collectively […] Medium-term, I feel the diversification story is affordable […] The use case for Bitcoin particularly is to diversify in opposition to dangers round conventional monetary markets.”
Kendrick additionally addressed the big outflows from the spot ETFs since Trump’s inauguration: “Even within the final week, we’ve seen about $3 billion of outflows by way of ETFs […] we received to a web place of about $40 billion of inflows over the primary 12 months of these ETFs within the US […] however within the final week or so we’ve seen $3 billion of outflows.”
He estimates that those that purchased Bitcoin post-election in November are actually “closely underwater” to the tune of $2 billion in paper losses. This newer cohort of holders, mixed with the sector’s still-robust retail participation, has amplified volatility: “It’s far more tough for traders then to carry by way of losses […] whenever you see strikes like we noticed this week, you are inclined to get some panic promoting.”
$200,000 Goal Nonetheless In Play
He additionally reiterated the necessity for deeper institutional participation—citing banks like Customary Chartered and funding giants reminiscent of BlackRock—to enhance custody options and cut back the frequency of such hacks just like the Bybit one, resulting in damaging headlines:
“Because the trade turns into extra institutionalized it needs to be safer […] hopefully we get some regulatory readability within the US too […] that ought to add to that medium-term prime aspect potential which for me is Bitcoin as much as $200,000 this 12 months and $500,000 earlier than Trump leaves workplace.”
Wanting forward, Kendrick underscored that regulatory readability—significantly round stablecoin guidelines and KYC—might set off a wave of institutional and even sovereign capital inflows. He recognized long-term public pension funds and sovereign wealth funds as pivotal market movers, referencing the Abu Dhabi Sovereign Wealth Fund’s buy of 4,700 BTC-equivalent shares within the BlackRock ETF on the finish of 2024:
“There’s that very long-term sector that’s nonetheless to take part extra […] after which additionally Sovereign so the one Sovereign that we all know up to now has purchased the ETFs is Abu Sovereign wealth fund […] I’d anticipate extra of that to return by way of this 12 months as effectively.”
At press time, BTC traded at $81,428.
Featured picture from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com
