The 2024 US presidential election race stays extremely aggressive on prediction markets, with odds tightening just lately on Polymarket, the main blockchain-based prediction platform.
As of press time, the “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market on Polymarket reveals a particularly shut contest between the frontrunners. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are presently in a lifeless warmth, with every candidate receiving 50% of consumer predictions.
This represents the closest odds seen on the platform since mid-September, reflecting the risky and unpredictable nature of the present political panorama.
Particular Counsel Jack Smith submits non-public felony prices towards Trump
The tightening of odds comes amid a brand new improvement within the ongoing authorized challenges surrounding the 2020 election. Particular Counsel Jack Smith has filed new paperwork associated to his investigation into makes an attempt to overturn the 2020 election outcomes, amending to navigate the Supreme Court docket ruling round Presidential immunity.
The submitting presents an in depth account of Trump’s actions primarily based on testimony from insiders inside his circle. The submitting alleges that Trump had deliberate to declare victory whatever the election outcomes, with the intention of excluding mail-in ballots that he believed favored Biden.
Based on the submitting, by Nov. 13, 2020, Trump was conscious that he lacked proof of election fraud and had misplaced authorized challenges that might have altered the election final result. The submitting additional particulars Trump’s interactions with Vice President Mike Pence, who repeatedly refused to take part in efforts to overturn the election outcomes.
On Jan. 6, 2021, Trump allegedly inspired his supporters to march to the Capitol, realizing that Pence wouldn’t reject the legally licensed electors. The doc means that even after the Capitol assault, Trump continued efforts to cease the certification course of, hiring new attorneys who have been prepared to proceed his plan.
Nevertheless, the submitting seems to have had little damaging results on Trump’s Polymarket odds. The platform has seen a surge in exercise and consumer engagement in current months because the 2024 election attracts nearer.
Polymarket exercise continues to thrive by election betting
In September, the platform reported $533.51 million in buying and selling quantity, a rise of $61.51 million in comparison with August. The variety of lively customers additionally climbed to 90,037, representing a 41% rise from the earlier month.
The “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market has been significantly lively, producing $89 million in 30-day quantity primarily based on current Dune Analytics information. This excessive stage of engagement emphasizes Polymarket customers’ intense curiosity within the upcoming election.
The platform’s progress has been pushed by elevated curiosity in decentralized prediction markets, significantly as international occasions like elections and geopolitical tensions have captured public consideration. Polymarket’s blockchain-based know-how affords customers a clear and safe surroundings for betting on occasion outcomes.
With the election simply over a month away, demand for these prediction markets is anticipated to stay excessive. Nevertheless, analysts are carefully watching to see whether or not curiosity will taper off after November. Polymarket’s capacity to diversify its markets past elections and give attention to consumer expertise may play a vital position in sustaining momentum post-election.
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